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Soothsaying the GRD III, Again

The January issue of China's Popular Photography quotes the price for GRDII at RMB 3,500 and GX200 at RMB 3,200. I was around the Guangdong province in China during the last few days. The prices for the two cameras I saw in a big digitial store were RMB 3,980 and RMB 3,780 respectively.

So, the 30% price drop for GRD II is not just for Hong Kong. It is suspicious to me if the cut is to simply change tact on account of the economic downturn as told by the Ricoh distributor here. The prelude to GRD III has begun IMO. Ricoh is shedding the GRD II stock at a very low price. This is an unfortunate tactic, if my guess is right, because if I were a GRD user, I would be concerned about my future investment in Ricoh cameras. A 30% drop in value is a lot for a relatively expensive camera within such a short perio of time, not to mention the ever dropping price of the GX200 at least in this part of the world. In just six months, the GX200 is selling for around US$120 less here. Not a wise move to cultivate loyality maybe.

But on the other hand, I am glad that the Ricoh distributors are generous, friendly and helpful. Just yesterday, a GX200 user in Malaysia was returned a new GX200 for his old one which had got dust on the lens.

Comments

Cristian said…
Cameras today are not really big investments and price drops unavoidable. The move to cut the prices is as mentioned more with the economic situation but also with stronger competition from the Panasonic LX3 and Canon G10 which also sell for a lot less now. Looking at the release cycles for the GRD and GX series I would not expect much before October next year or maybe late summer. There will be a new R11 in a few months though.

If you have a Ricoh camera (or any other for that matter) and it works and does the job for you it does not matter how much it sells for now.
Ricoh however is one of the few camera manufacturers to release feature enhancing firmware updates for their cameras till they are discontinued so the return to your investment is there. Look at the GRD I, 2 years after it has been released Ricoh released a final firmware update which included half of the features from the new GRD II. This is a stark contrast to Canon who instead of simply adding RAW via a firmware update to the G7 decided to release the G9 instead to force people to upgrade.
Nevin said…
Cristi, thank you for your intelligent comments. You have made very valid points and a cogent argument in your comments. I didn’t put myself really clearly in the post. Let me clarify myself with reference to some of your views:

1. “The move to cut the prices is as mentioned more with the economic situation but also with stronger competition from the Panasonic LX3 and Canon G10 which also sell for a lot less now.

Looking at the release cycles for the GRD and GX series I would not expect much before October next year or maybe late summer. There will be a new R11 in a few months though.”
--> I agree but just doubt if it has nothing to do with cutting back the stock of the II. As in the case of GX100 which I mentioned in a previous post, a drastic price cut started nine months before the coming of GX200.
So, factoring in the lead time of nine months, I also expect the III to be out in summer (which was also mentioned in the previous post :)).

2. “If you have a Ricoh camera (or any other for that matter) and it works and does the job for you it does not matter how much it sells for now.

Ricoh however is one of the few camera manufacturers to release feature enhancing firmware updates for their cameras till they are discontinued so the return to your investment is there. Look at the GRD I, 2 years after it has been released Ricoh released a final firmware update which included half of the features from the new GRD II. This is a stark contrast to Canon who instead of simply adding RAW via a firmware update to the G7 decided to release the G9 instead to force people to upgrade”

-> I really admire the boldness, creativity and good faith of Ricoh to tread new tracks in camera making. These were the similar reasons why I admired, and still do, Minolta. Minolta was very bold and creative in applying new designs and technology to its cameras, which I would need a few posts to illustrate. But eventually it was still crowded out by the few big players. We like Ricoh cameras. But, you know, not a few people still think that Ricoh only makes printers. And I hope it would do better than Minolta. In that case, it would need a bigger, steady market share, especially when the big players are now in the same field.

I see two points from your last two paragraphs: pricing and good faith. IMO both are important factors to retain its existing customer base. Of course, the all-important matter is that it will improve its future cameras (I played with the G10 and LX3 last week and still think that Ricoh has to improve the focusing speed and add in the shutter priority mode. I have no complaints otherwise).

First, to the users of whatever brand, price drops are unavoidable. But dropping the price too drastic too fast as in the case of GX200 is not a good way to cultivate users’ loyalty. IMO consumers tend to wait for a lower price if they know that some certain brand will drop the price quickly for their products after just a few months. And waiting can lose a company its customers. And quick, big price drops somehow harm the feelings (loyalty) of users who bought the cameras at a much higher price not long ago. The more frantic photographers (like me) may not mind the price too much. But I think Ricoh needs a larger customer base to float its market share. Maybe Ricoh secured a niche market for the GRDs and GXs before and was then freer to price them at a higher price level. Now that the big players are here, I suggest Ricoh lower the pricing level for its future GRD and GX models to avoid drastic price cuts.

Second, at least for Wouter and the Malaysian user, the old GXs with dust inside it were replaced with new ones free of charge. Great for Ricoh. I doubt if any other player will do just that. Ricoh has impressed me as a camera maker “with a heart”. This is an important factor to retain loyalty unless it becomes a big player like Canon with an unstoppable flow of customers. But even if Ricoh makes it in getting a bigger market share, I wish that it would still attach great importance to its good faith as it does now.

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